Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Getting Someone to Fold

You bet with something less than the nuts. Like middle pair. And they called. Or they bet weakly, and you decided to call.

How are you going to get them to fold?

Remember, they can't see your cards. They can only see the board, and the size of your bets. Along with any hesitation on your part, or, the opposite, aggression, such as slamming down an all-in bet instantly when the turn or river hits the board.

First thing is to evaluate. What do they likely have? Top Pair, Top Kicker (TPTK)?

Or do they have two pair and were slowplaying you. If they merely called rather than raised, that's unlikely. Most players are too greedy to slowplay a strong hand once they've got a caller; after all your hand might improve.

Most players know better than to slowplay anything but a very strong hand, at the least 2pr or better.

Are they on a draw perhaps? What does the board show. A strong draw is a good reason to call a low or medium sized bet.

What if they have the same cards you do.

Often I'll use a progression bet, 200, 400, 600 to drive out a player who I suspect doesn't have a lot better cards than I do.

Another trick is the "I just hit two pair" sudden increase in my bet. I bet $200 on the flop, and $1000 on the turn.

This doesn't work real well if they have a stronger hand than you do.

A check-raise is another powerful tool. Problem is, they're already heavily invested in the pot. They're more likely to call.

And what if they're in position to bet first. Sometimes the best thing to do is simply to lay down a mediocre hand. You probably only bet it because you were in late position or there'd been a check around anyway.

But the best strategy is to look for scare cards. A third spade or possible straight now appears on the board. Ask yourself HOW VISIBLE IS IT? 456 is a lot more visible than 4-78.

When scare cards hit the board, if they bet first and don't bet big, this is your golden chance.

If you ahve to bet first, you take a huge risk that they actually WERE on a draw, and called your wimpy bet hoping to hit it. Might be better to lay down.

What all of this suggests is not to place wimpy bets on medium or low pair. Either bluff strong enough that nobody calls, or fold and wait for a stronger hand. Unless your hand actually improves on the turn or river you're fighting an uphill battle against a player who's just as invested in the pot as you are, and convinced YOUR hand isn't very strong.

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